As a trend forecaster and strategist my day job is looking to the future to help business and brands understand how people will be behaving in the coming 3-5+ years and anticipating their needs and wants. Although 2020 has not exactly started the way that we had predicted with a global pandemic, global social isolation, and lockdown, what is true is that much of the behaviour and needs that we will see post this crisis were already beginning to emerge and shape the hospitality industry.
For the hospitality industry, everything came to a stop so quickly. Within a week of discussing the potential impact the pandemic would have on travel behaviours, the first hotels in Europe started to close, quickly followed by those in the US and now globally all hotels are closed except for those who have managed to reopen for the homeless and front line workers. It’s devastating- with hotel CEOs citing this to be worse than 911 and the 2018 financial crash put together.
When the global lockdown starts to be lifted and we begin to find what many are calling ‘The New Normal’, for the hospitality and travel industry there won’t be a business as usual bounce back, but instead a rethink and collective adaption of what hospitality means.
For some there will be a boom in trade when people are finally allowed out of their homes again and hotels, bars, restaurants and airlines will see people rush to empower their newfound freedom, but once the elation has subsided and reality of the new normal takes root it will mean that alongside the desire to be ‘out’ will come some new consumer expectations.
To survive in this new normal it will be those brands that respond to many of the trends we had already started to see emerge in the travel and hospitality industry that will succeed as we see the likes of self-care, slow and sustainable travel and staycationing accelerate as we shift our value expectations borne out of this global macro shift rather than focussing on the old patterns.
The impact of the outbreak has already and will continue to force us into slowing down. Right now solitude & doing less than we are used to doing has been forced upon us, particularly for those of us who have been furloughed and what we are feeling are teething problems as we get used to these new behaviours, but already for many of us a new pattern has set in, a new routine that only 2 weeks ago seemed so out of character for us and suddenly our focus has shifted to enjoying what we have vs worrying about what we haven’t achieved.
New behaviours such as working from home, not taking planes and trains, entertaining only amongst close friends and family and learning to become self-sufficient are already feeling like our new normal. We are getting used to living with fewer possessions and travelling less as the virus disrupts transportation networks and our day today. But if we stop to take stock, we were already starting to see this happen as sustainability was making people to consider whether that flight was really needed, flight shaming or flygskam as it has been coined was becoming mainstream, and a realisation of overconsumption was leading to a rise in ‘slow living’. Access over ownership was driving a new ‘rental’ market in terms of furniture, offices, cars, and clothing and the promise of 5G was about to release us from the constraints of the 9-5, whilst wellbeing was making us rethink where and how our food is produced. It was also hard not to read any article that wasn’t full of a brand telling us about their brand purpose. Now thanks to Covid-19 they have stopped talking about it and are ‘doing it’!
As we have time on our hands many of us are also rethinking about what is important to us in life, what enjoyment is, what our purpose is now that our work does not necessarily define us. It used to be enjoyment was wrapped up in socialising with friends in bars and restaurants, travelling to new places and buying things we didn’t need in our lives, but now we are questioning do we need to be in a bar to enjoy time with our friends? Do we need to travel to that meeting now that we can successfully connect and work from home or eat in that restaurant now that we have revived our love for cooking? and as such we will be contemplating our relationship with travel and hospitality.
The Hospitality industry be it a hotel, co-working or bars and restaurants has been about offering physical spaces that welcome people, bringing them together, which right now is the complete opposite of what we are being told is safe and sensible. As such the industry will need to learn to be adaptable to people’s needs to opt-in and out of social interaction at a drop of a hat. As a result, we will see architecture that fosters quiet and a new acceptance of minimalism with surfaces and materials that are easily and publicly cleaned. Communal spaces such as restaurants, co-working and hotel lobby’s will be designed to offer ‘social distancing’ yet still offer connection and will incorporate the design of safe spaces for people to find sanctuary when they need it.
We will also see a new security emerge across hospitality and travel as we learn to live in a time of impermanence where global borders and mass lockdown could happen at any time as we recognise the fragility of things closing so quickly. This will raise concerns about being stranded and make people question how important their travel is and how far from home they are willing to go. People will also be less forgiving about what goes on behind closed doors and will be looking for new certifications around hygiene and cleanliness as back of house becomes as important as front of house as people will expect to see your inner workings around cleanliness and safety of guests and staff.
Sustainable travel will be accelerated as people increasingly become aware of the positive impacts of Covid-19 on the climate and will think twice before undoing some of the positives that have come from this global pandemic as they see the skies clear and wildlife returning. People will expect the hotels they stay in to be giving back to the local community, carbon neutral and making better choices for the planet and the food they eat to be ethical and local. With this we will see a renewed push back against hyper globalisation, with self-enforced localisation which will accelerate the already emerging trend of staycationing. Seeing how fragile global travel is, staycations are likely to make travellers feel more comfortable as they are familiar with the location and can avoid flying and more importantly, they know the health service and structure. With staycationing comes the rise of rural, cities are the epicentre of the spread of Covid-19, people are living and working in close proximity and the countryside offers space and a place to feel safe. Connection with nature and a place to deliver on the growing need for self-sufficiency will see rural hospitality locations supporting people with places to learn how to grow fruit and vegetables and bake bread and will become the new playground for adults. Travel will slow in line with our new slower lifestyles and will become about restorative moments, a time and place to get away to relax and do nothing and opt-out as people continue to push back against the cult of busyness that was our life pre Covid-19.
Philippa has spent over 20 years in strategic trend forecasting, shaping the future of some of the world’s leading brands. She’s worked with a range of global clients across hospitality, apparel, food, and drink, retail and technology to include The Hoxton, QIC, Diageo, Spotify, and The North Face as well as most recently being the founder and director of 23Lab Ennismore’s innovation and insights team – a forward-thinking hospitality lab with the sole aim of creating products and experiences for future guests for Ennismore. Philippa works with brands as a thought partner to bring big new ideas to drive change in day to day operations as well as future-proofing the needs of tomorrow, balancing future trends and consumer insights with a strong commercial business understanding enabling her to deliver both brand and business impact. Connect with Philippa on LinkedIn here.
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